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It now seems to be established that climate change is the main cause of the unsatisfactory results of agricultural harvests in Italy and beyond. The world of olive growing is also affected in general terms, but with substantial differences between the various Italian regions. Sometimes catastrophic events with rain during flowering, drought and particularly high temperatures have characterized the poor harvests of Italian olive groves.
The international panorama is no exception, confirming that the rise in temperatures, with consequent warming of the planet, creates significant damage to agricultural crops.
The situation of European productions
Spain, the world's leading producer and exporter of olive oil, has seen a decline of -34% compared to the average of the last four years. Same situation also for Greece, victim of significant losses regarding its production. The only exception in the European panorama comes from Tunisia, a nation that managed to slightly recover the drop in collection but still remained below its standard.
As for Italy, the tonnes produced expected for the 2023-24 oil campaign are just 270,000, with differences decreasing for some regions and, fortunately, increasing for others. A contraction of -33% is expected in the North and also in the South, with the exception of Puglia which records a considerable increase of +80% compared to last year, in particular in the provinces of Bari and BAT (Barletta, Andria and Trani). A result that certifies the region as the number one producer in the Bel Paese, with Apulian oil contributing to around half of national production. Calabria also achieved an excellent result with a good increase together with Abruzzo and Basilicata. Sicily confirms last year's results, while other regions record lower production, especially in the north where olive trees, due to climate change, have found a home as far as the Alpine valleys of Lombardy.
Increase in costs
What was said above obviously reverberates in a surge in producer prices of +42%, according to Coldiretti estimates, which then influences the increase in the price of Italians' shopping carts. To try to reverse the trend, Coldiretti has planned to use the resources of the PNRR to plant 1 million new olive trees, also trying to reduce the import of foreign olive oil which today represents 75% of the internal consumption. Consider that in 2022 the value of olive oil imports from abroad was equal to 2.2 billion euros and in the first months of 2023 it increased by another 20%.
An awareness campaign would also be appropriate to encourage the consumption of extra virgin olive oil which has been constantly decreasing for 10 years, especially among the younger generations, from 12 kg per capita to 7.1 kg per year (source COI - Council Oleic International). The reasons are many, from the consumption of already prepared foods, to lunch breaks consumed in fast food restaurants and also to recipes and preparations that use less oil. The combination between the massive importation of foreign oil, often of not excellent quality, and the decrease in consumption has a harmful impact on the health and lifestyle of Italians, where instead a more careful compliance with the dictates of the "Mediterranean Diet" would entail great advantages in health terms and a decrease in the use of drugs and treatments, with significant savings on national health spending. Despite this, Italy remains among the nations with the highest consumption of extra virgin olive oil in the world (around 500,000 tons), behind Spain and ahead of the United States.
In light of these results of olive production and inflation data, wholesale prices in Italian markets record fluctuations ranging from €8.65/kg ex-farm in Trapani for extra virgin olive oil, up to €23. €00/kg ex farm in Ravenna for DOP Brisighella extra virgin olive oil. From this we understand that the public price of a good extra virgin olive oil, considering the packaging (bottle or can, cap, label, etc.) cannot fall below €13.00/14.00 per litre.